Hyperliquid's stock perps call earnings night before Wall Street opens. Its smaller traders keep betting the other way.
Dune checked 26 megacap earnings reports from 2026. By 8 PM ET, when US after-hours ends, the perps had priced a median ~70% of the next opening gap, and pointed the right way in 19 of 21 reports with a gap over 2%.
Positions are public, so: after 21 of 26 reports, accounts under $250k bet on a reversal. In 17 of 21 big moves, the stock kept going. Alphabet's night saw $15.8M liquidated in the first hour.
Polymarket's earnings contracts trade a few thousand dollars a day, and were more accurate a day before the release than at it.
The perp figured it out by dinner. The little guys found out at the open.
Source: Dune — Megacap earnings on Hyperliquid and Polymarket